Stocks close lower after weak retail reports

Stock indexes closed lower Thursday, a third straight decline, after U.S. retailers issued weak forecasts for earnings and more people filed claims for unemployment benefits.

Wal-Mart, Ross Stores and Limited Brands, the owner of Victoria's Secret, all fell after issuing forecasts that disappointed financial analysts. Wal-Mart fell $2.59, or 3.6 percent, to $68.72.

The Dow Jones industrial average wavered between small gains and losses shortly after the opening bell, then moved lower at midmorning. It closed down 28.57 points at 12,542.38.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 2.17 points to 1,353.32 and the Nasdaq composite finished 9.87 points lower at 2,836.94.

Stocks have fallen steadily since voters returned President Barack Obama and a divided Congress to power. The Dow has lost 5 percent from Election Day, Nov. 6.

Investors are worried that U.S. leaders may not reach a deal before tax increases and government spending cuts take effect Jan. 1. The impact would total $700 billion for 2013 and could send the country back into recession.

Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Asset Management Group in Philadelphia, said the bargaining in Washington would likely drag on until next year, weighing on stocks. “It's hard to see the market getting a whole ton of traction until that gets settled.”

President Obama will meet with congressional leaders Friday to talk about the budget, but he appeared to suggest Thursday that he would insist on an increase in tax rates for the wealthy.

T. Dale, a portfolio manager at Security Ballew Wealth Management in Jackson, Miss., said that stocks are more likely to fall than rise, partly because of slowing global economic growth and the U.S. budget impasse.

“The market has gotten well ahead of itself,” Dale said.

Superstorm Sandy drove the number of people seeking unemployment benefits up to 439,000 last week, the Labor Department reported. Applications for benefits rose 78,000, mostly because a large number were filed in storm-damaged states.

The European Union's statistics agency confirmed that the euro zone, the group of 17 countries that use the euro currency, is in recession. The economy in the region shrank 0.1 percent in the third quarter from the previous three-month period.

Among the retailers disappointing Wall Street with lower earnings forecasts, Ross Stores, whose stores includes Ross Dress for Less, fell 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $54.44. Limited Brands dropped $1.10, or 2.4 percent, to $45.50.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 1.59 percent.

Among stocks making big moves:

— NetApp, a data storage business, jumped $3.08, or 11.3 percent, to $30.20 after the company reported earnings that were higher than analysts were expecting.

— Viacom, the owner of Nickelodeon, MTV and the Paramount movie and TV studio, rose $1.24, or 2.6 percent, to $49.23. The media conglomerate did better than investors had expected thanks to lower costs and higher fees from cable and satellite companies for carrying its cable networks.

— Petsmart, a specialty pet retailer, jumped $2.63, or 4.1 percent, to $67.48 after raising its full-year outlook.

— Target rose $1.06, or 1.7 percent, to $62.44 after reporting that its profit rose more than analysts had forecast. The company also issued a strong outlook heading into the critical holiday season.

— Dollar Tree, a discount retailer that sells items for $1 or less, gained $1.94, or 5.1 percent, to $39.70 after the company said its net income rose 49 percent in the third quarter.

— Apple's market value fell below $500 million for the first time since May, as the maker of smartphones and tablets dropped $11.26 to $525.62. The company's market value climbed as high as $658 million Sept. 19, according to FactSet data.

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Romney reflects on his loss in call with campaign donors

Mitt Romney told his top donors Wednesday that his loss to President Obama was a disappointing result that neither he nor his top aides had expected, but said he believed his team ran a “superb” campaign with “no drama,” and attributed his rival’s victory to “the gifts” the administration had given to blacks, Hispanics and young voters during Obama’s  first term.

Obama, Romney argued, had been “very generous” to blacks, Hispanics and young voters. He cited as motivating factors to young voters the administration’s plan for partial forgiveness of college loan interest and the extension of health coverage for students on their parents’ insurance plans well into their 20s. Free contraception coverage under Obama’s healthcare plan, he added, gave an extra incentive to college-age women to back the president.

Romney argued that Obama’s healthcare plan’s promise of coverage “in perpetuity” was “highly motivational” to those voters making $25,000 to $35,000 who might not have been covered, as well as to African American and Hispanic voters. Pivoting to immigration, Romney said the Obama campaign’s efforts to paint him as “anti-immigrant” had been effective and that the administration’s promise to offer what he called “amnesty” to the children of illegal immigrants had helped turn out Hispanic voters in record numbers.

PHOTOS: Mitt Romney’s past

“The president’s campaign,” he said, “focused on giving targeted groups a big gift — so he made a big effort on small things. Those small things, by the way, add up to trillions of dollars.”

The Wednesday donor call was organized by Romney’s finance team and included a final rundown of fundraising efforts as well as an analysis by Romney pollster Neil Newhouse, who has been criticized by some Republicans for misleading the candidate about his chances.

“I am very sorry that we didn’t win,” Romney told the donors. “I know that you expected to win. We expected to win…. It was very close, but close doesn’t count in this business.”

Romney reflected on the trajectory that led to last week’s loss, acknowledging that he’d “gotten beat up pretty bad” by Obama and his allies after the primaries, but noting his rebound after the first fall debate.  

The 2012 Republican nominee avoided any recriminations about his team or a second-guessing of their efforts, calling the organization “a very solid team that got along” – an attribute he said he hoped would be reflected in the 2012 campaign books that are being written.

PHOTOS: Paul Ryan's past

Romney added that there was “no drama in the campaign — not that everybody was perfect; everybody has flat sides, but we learned how to accommodate each other’s strengths and weaknesses, to build on the strengths.”

“The organization did not get in the way,” he said.

In words of thanks for his donors, Romney said he never expected the campaign to raise more than $500 million. The Romney team ultimately raised more than $900 million, according to finance chairman Spencer Zwick, who reviewed some of the final tallies during the call.

Romney said he and his team were discussing how to keep the campaign’s donor group connected — perhaps with annual meetings or a monthly newsletter — “so we can stay informed and have influence on the direction of the party, and perhaps the selection of a future nominee.”

“Which, by the way,” the former candidate added with a chuckle, “will not be me.”

The former Massachusetts governor said he was trying to turn his thoughts to his plans going forward.

“But frankly we’re still so troubled by the past, it’s hard to put together our plans for the future,” he said.

PHOTOS: 2016 presidential possibilities

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Judge tosses anti-paparazzi counts in Bieber case

LOS ANGELES (AP) — A law aimed at combating reckless driving by paparazzi is overly broad and should not be used against the first photographer charged under its provisions, a judge ruled Wednesday.

Superior Court Judge Thomas Rubinson dismissed counts filed under the law against Paul Raef, who was charged in July with being involved in a high-speed pursuit of Justin Bieber.

The judge cited numerous problems with the 2010 law, saying it was aimed at First Amendment newsgathering activities, and lawmakers should have simply increased the penalties for reckless driving rather than targeting celebrity photographers.

Attorneys for Raef argued the law was unconstitutional and was meant merely to protect celebrities while punishing people who gather news.

"This discrimination sets a dangerous precedent," attorney Brad Kaiserman said.

Prosecutors argued that the law, which seeks to punish those who drive dangerously in pursuit of photos for commercial gain, didn't merely apply to the media but could apply to people in other professions.

Rubinson cited hypothetical examples in which wedding photographers or even photographers rushing to a portrait shoot with a celebrity could face additional penalties if charged under the new statute.

Raef still faces traditional reckless driving counts.

Prosecutors allege he chased Bieber at more than 80 mph and forced other motorists to avoid collisions while Raef tried to get shots of the teen heartthrob on a Los Angeles freeway in July.

Raef has not yet entered a plea in the case.

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Anthony McCartney can be reached at http://twitter.com/mccartneyAP

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Personal Health: Quitting Smoking for Good

Few smokers would claim that it’s easy to quit. The addiction to nicotine is strong and repeatedly reinforced by circumstances that prompt smokers to light up.

Yet the millions who have successfully quit are proof that a smoke-free life is achievable, even by those who have been regular, even heavy, smokers for decades.

Today, 19 percent of American adults smoke, down from more than 42 percent half a century ago, when Luther Terry, the United States surgeon general, formed a committee to produce the first official report on the health effects of smoking. Ever-increasing restrictions on where people can smoke have helped to swell the ranks of former smokers.

Now, however, as we approach the American Cancer Society’s 37th Great American Smokeout on Thursday, the decline in adult smoking has stalled despite the economic downturn and the soaring price of cigarettes.

Currently, 45 million Americans are regular smokers who, if they remain smokers, can on average expect to live 10 fewer years. Half will die of a tobacco-related disease, and many others will suffer for years with smoking-caused illness. Smoking adds $96 billion to the annual cost of medical care in this country, Dr. Nancy A. Rigotti wrote in The Journal of the American Medical Association last month. Even as some adult smokers quit, their ranks are being swelled by the 800,000 teenagers who become regular smokers each year and by young adults who, through advertising and giveaways, are now the prime targets of the tobacco industry.

People ages 18 to 25 now have the nation’s highest smoking rate: about 34 percent, according to the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. I had to hold my breath the other day as dozens of 20-somethings streamed out of art gallery openings and lighted up. Do they not know how easy it is to get hooked on nicotine and how challenging it can be to escape this addiction?

Challenging, yes, but by no means impossible. On the Web you can download a “Guide to Quitting Smoking,” with detailed descriptions of all the tools and tips to help you become an ex-smoker once and for all.

Or consult the new book by Dr. Richard Brunswick, a retired family physician in Northampton, Mass., who says he’s helped hundreds of people escape the clutches of nicotine and smoking. (The printable parts of the book’s provocative title are “Can’t Quit? You Can Stop Smoking.”)

“There is no magic pill or formula for beating back nicotine addiction,” Dr. Brunswick said. “However, with a better understanding of why you smoke and the different tools you can use to control the urge to light up, you can stop being a slave to your cigarettes.”

Addiction and Withdrawal

Nicotine beats a direct path to the brain, where it provides both relaxation and a small energy boost. But few smokers realize that the stress and lethargy they are trying to relieve are a result of nicotine withdrawal, not some underlying distress. Break the addiction, and the ill feelings are likely to dissipate.

Physical withdrawal from nicotine is short-lived. Four days without it and the worst is over, with remaining symptoms gone within a month, Dr. Brunswick said. But emotional and circumstantial tugs to smoke can last much longer.

Depending on when and why you smoke, cues can include needing a break from work, having to focus on a challenging task, drinking coffee or alcohol, being with other people who smoke or in places you associate with smoking, finishing a meal or sexual activity, and feeling depressed or upset.

To break such links, you must first identify them and then replace them with other activities, like taking a walk, chewing sugar-free gum or taking deep breaths. These can help you control cravings until the urge passes.

If you’ve failed at quitting before, try to identify what went wrong and do things differently this time, Dr. Brunswick suggests. Most smokers need several attempts before they can become permanent ex-smokers.

Perhaps most important is to be sure you are serious about quitting; if not, wait until you are. Motivation is half the battle. Also, should you slip and have a cigarette after days or weeks of not smoking, don’t assume you’ve failed and give up. Just go right back to not smoking.

Aids for Quitting

Many if not most smokers need two kinds of assistance to become lasting ex-smokers: psychological support and medicinal aids. Only about 4 percent to 7 percent of people are able to quit smoking on any given attempt without help, the cancer society says.

All 50 states and the District of Columbia have free telephone-based support programs that connect would-be quitters to trained counselors. Together, you can plan a stop-smoking method that suits your smoking pattern and helps you avoid common pitfalls.

Online support groups and Nicotine Anonymous can help as well. To find a group, ask a local hospital or call the cancer society at (800) 227-2345. Consider telling relatives and friends about your intention to quit, and plan to spend time in smoke-free settings.

More than a dozen treatments can help you break the physical addiction to tobacco. Most popular is nicotine replacement therapy, sold both with and without a prescription. The Food and Drug Administration has approved five types: nicotine patches of varying strengths, gums, sprays, inhalers and lozenges that can curb withdrawal symptoms and help you gradually reduce your dependence on nicotine.

Two prescription drugs are also effective: an extended-release form of the antidepressant bupropion (Zyban or Wellbutrin), which reduces nicotine cravings, and varenicline (Chantix), which blocks nicotine receptors in the brain, reducing both the pleasurable effects of smoking and the symptoms of nicotine withdrawal. Combining a nicotine replacement with one of these drugs is often more effective than either approach alone.

Other suggested techniques, like hypnosis and acupuncture, have helped some people quit but lack strong proof of their effectiveness. Tobacco lozenges and pouches and nicotine lollipops and lip balms lack evidence as quitting aids, and no clinical trials have been published showing that electronic cigarettes can help people quit.

The cancer society suggests picking a “quit day”; ridding your home, car and workplace of smoking paraphernalia; choosing a stop-smoking plan, and stocking up on whatever aids you may need.

On the chosen day, keep active; drink lots of water and juices; use a nicotine replacement; change your routine if possible; and avoid alcohol, situations you associate with smoking and people who are smoking.

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This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: November 14, 2012

An earlier version of this column misstated the rate of smoking among young adults. According to the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, about 34 percent of people ages 18 to 25 smoke cigarettes, not 40 percent. (That is the share of young adults who use tobacco products of any kind, according to the survey.)

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Fed minutes suggest new bond-buying plan is likely

Associated Press

November 14, 2012, 1:37 p.m.

The Federal Reserve will probably announce a new bond-buying program in December to try to spur job growth.

The purchases would be intended to lower long-term borrowing rates to encourage spending and strengthen the economy. The hope is that more hiring would follow.

Minutes of the Fed's Oct. 23-24 policy meeting released Wednesday suggest that it will unveil a Treasury-buying plan to replace a program that expires at year's end. Under the existing program, called Operation Twist, the Fed has been selling $45 billion a month in short-term Treasurys and using the proceeds to buy an equal amount of longer-term securities.

When Operation Twist ends, the Fed will run out of short-term investments to sell. The minutes show support among the Fed's policymakers to replace Twist with another program of long-term bond purchases.

A new bond-buying program would come on top of a program the Fed launched in September. It began buying $40 billion a month in mortgage bonds to try to reduce long-term rates and make home-buying more affordable. It was its third round of bond purchases.

The Fed also said in September that it planned to keep its benchmark short-term rate near zero through mid-2015. And it signaled a readiness to take other stimulative steps if hiring didn't pick up.

The Fed reaffirmed that stance at its October policy meeting but took no new action. Officials decided to wait to see whether the aggressive steps they announced in September would boost the economy.

In a statement after the October meeting, the Fed said that although the economy is improving moderately, job growth remained slow and the unemployment rate elevated. The rate is now 7.9%.

Many analysts say the economy has been growing in the October-to-December quarter at a weak annual rate below 2% — too slow to drive down unemployment. In part, that's why the Fed will probably take further action at its final policy meeting of the year, Dec. 11-12.

Operation Twist hasn't expanded the Fed's portfolio of bond holdings. It has instead revamped the portfolio by shrinking the proportion made up of short-term investments and expanding the proportion made up of longer-term investments.

If the Fed launches a new bond-buying program, it would expand the portfolio.

Critics say the Fed's continued pumping of money into the financial system is heightening the risk of high inflation. But Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his allies say the bigger risk would come from doing too little to boost a persistently sluggish economy.

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Obama reassuring liberal allies, prepping for 'fiscal cliff' talks

WASHINGTON -- President Obama is assuring liberal allies that he will fight for the middle class during upcoming fiscal negotiations with Republicans, and he is urging those supporters not to lay down their weapons just because the election is over.

But the White House is also talking about the inevitability of compromise as the administration and congressional Democrats and Republicans prepare to negotiate an end-of-year fiscal deal that will center on the expiration of the George W. Bush-era tax cuts and a spate of automatic spending cuts.

The preparations are bringing progressive allies and business leaders alike to the White House this week, leading up to the president’s summit on Friday with congressional leaders of both parties -- their first session since his reelection.

PHOTOS: Reactions to Obama's victory

In an hourlong meeting with labor and other progressive leaders on Tuesday, the president promised to stand firm on the tax principles he outlined in the campaign, according to several people who were present.

They departed the West Wing under a bright sky, the victory they helped Obama win fresh in their minds. They were heartened that Obama emphasized the need for "balance" between spending cuts and revenue increases, and for the wealthy to bear a fairer share of the tax burden, said Neera Tanden, president of the Center for American Progress.

"He said that this election was about the middle class and fairness," Tanden said. "He’s standing firm on taxes on the wealthiest Americans."

Labor leaders were adamant that the deal protect the middle-class tax cuts, said AFL-CIO chief Rich Trumka. "Do we believe the president is committed to that same thing?" he said after emerging from the West Wing. "Yes, we do."

White House officials are talking about a schedule in which the president would stay on the campaign trail, with the aim of keeping the pressure on House Republicans to renew the expiring tax cuts for the middle class while letting those for the wealthy expire.

PHOTOS: America goes to the polls

As the Tuesday meeting was breaking up, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney was just steps away in the briefing room, talking about the realities of negotiation.

The "whole point of compromise," he said, "is that nobody gets to achieve their maximalist position."

The president in the past has demonstrated a willingness, he said, to "give" in an effort to "meet your negotiating partner somewhere in the middle and reach a deal."

As they stake out their stand, business leaders are signaling resistance to the idea of letting the tax cuts expire for any Americans, including the wealthy.

In a letter to the president, several corporate chief executives warned of the economic perils of cutting spending dramatically while simultaneously raising taxes. If the president and Congress can’t agree on how to head off those automatic changes, they’ll both begin to take effect at the end of the year.

"Experts agree such immediate changes will most likely reduce economic growth and hinder employment in the United States and globally," said the letter by the CEOs, including some who are invited to the White House on Wednesday. "This would be particularly damaging as economies throughout the world struggle and look to us for leadership."

PHOTOS: President Obama’s past

The meeting is expected to be a little tense as the two sides stake out territory. That’s what the progressive leaders hope for.

Quietly, some of them worry about the inevitable "give" that Carney talked about. As they left the White House grounds on Tuesday, they spoke of nothing but optimism -- even as they spoke in terms of supporting particular principles, not particular leaders.

Asked if he would help the president lobby Congress, Trumka said he was “prepared to stand up to make sure that there is shared sacrifice here, so the rich actually start paying their fair share.”

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Man who accused Elmo puppeteer of teen sex recants

NEW YORK (AP) — The man who accused Elmo puppeteer Kevin Clash of having sex with him when he was a teen now says it isn't so.

The man is now saying his sexual relationship with Clash was adult and consensual.

In response to the statement Tuesday afternoon, Clash issued a statement of his own, saying he is "relieved that this painful allegation has been put to rest."

The man, who has not identified himself, released his statement through the Harrisburg, Pa., law firm of Andreozzi & Associates.

On Monday, Sesame Workshop said Clash had taken a leave of absence from "Sesame Street" after allegations came to light that he had had a relationship with a 16-year-old. Clash denied the charges from the man, who is now in his early 20s.

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‘Dream Team’ of Behavioral Scientists Advised Obama Campaign

Chris Keane/Reuters

DOOR TO DOOR Ricky Hall, an Obama volunteer, in Charlotte, N.C., last week.

Late last year Matthew Barzun, an official with the Obama campaign, called Craig Fox, a psychologist in Los Angeles, and invited him to a political planning meeting in Chicago, according to two people who attended the session.

“He said, ‘Bring the whole group; let’s hear what you have to say,’ ” recalled Dr. Fox, a behavioral economist at the University of California, Los Angeles.

So began an effort by a team of social scientists to help their favored candidate in the 2012 presidential election. Some members of the team had consulted with the Obama campaign in the 2008 cycle, but the meeting in January signaled a different direction.

“The culture of the campaign had changed,” Dr. Fox said. “Before then I felt like we had to sell ourselves; this time there was a real hunger for our ideas.”

This election season the Obama campaign won a reputation for drawing on the tools of social science. The book “The Victory Lab,” by Sasha Issenberg, and news reports have portrayed an operation that ran its own experiment and, among other efforts, consulted with the Analyst Institute, a Washington voter research group established in 2007 by union officials and their allies to help Democratic candidates.

Less well known is that the Obama campaign also had a panel of unpaid academic advisers. The group — which calls itself the “consortium of behavioral scientists,” or COBS — provided ideas on how to counter false rumors, like one that President Obama is a Muslim. It suggested how to characterize the Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, in advertisements. It also delivered research-based advice on how to mobilize voters.

“In the way it used research, this was a campaign like no other,” said Todd Rogers, a psychologist at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and a former director of the Analyst Institute. “It’s a big change for a culture that historically has relied on consultants, experts and gurulike intuition.”

When asked about the outside psychologists, the Obama campaign would neither confirm nor deny a relationship with them. “This campaign was built on the energy, enthusiasm and ingenuity of thousands of grass-roots supporters and our staff in the states and in Chicago,” said Adam Fetcher, a campaign spokesman. “Throughout the campaign we saw an outpouring of individuals across the country who lent a wide variety of ideas and input to our efforts to get the president re-elected.”

For their part, consortium members said they did nothing more than pass on research-based ideas, in e-mails and conference calls. They said they could talk only in general terms about the research, because they had signed nondisclosure agreements with the campaign.

In addition to Dr. Fox, the consortium included Susan T. Fiske of Princeton University; Samuel L. Popkin of the University of California, San Diego; Robert Cialdini, a professor emeritus at Arizona State University; Richard H. Thaler, a professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago’s business school; and Michael Morris, a psychologist at Columbia.

“A kind of dream team, in my opinion,” Dr. Fox said.

He said that the ideas the team proposed were “little things that can make a difference” in people’s behavior.

For example, Dr. Fiske’s research has shown that when deciding on a candidate, people generally focus on two elements: competence and warmth. “A candidate wants to make sure to score high on both dimensions,” Dr. Fiske said in an interview. “You can’t just run on the idea that everyone wants to have a beer with you; some people care a whole lot about competence.”

Mr. Romney was recognized as a competent businessman, polling found. But he was often portrayed in opposition ads as distant, unable to relate to the problems of ordinary people.

When it comes to countering rumors, psychologists have found that the best strategy is not to deny the charge (“I am not a flip-flopper”) but to affirm a competing notion. “The denial works in the short term; but in the long term people remember only the association, like ‘Obama and Muslim,’ ” said Dr. Fox, of the persistent false rumor.

The president’s team affirmed that he is a Christian.

At least some of the consortium’s proposals seemed to have found their way into daily operations. Campaign volunteers who knocked on doors last week in swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada did not merely remind people to vote and arrange for rides to the polls. Rather, they worked from a script, using subtle motivational techniques that research has shown can prompt people to take action.

“We used the scripts more as a guide,” said Sarah Weinstein, 18, a Columbia freshman who traveled with a group to Cleveland the weekend before the election. “The actual language we used was invested in the individual person.”

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: November 13, 2012

An earlier version of this article omitted a word from the title of the book by Sasha Issenberg that examines data-driven strategies in political campaigns. It is “The Victory Lab,”  not “Victory Lab.”

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US stocks fall in uneven trading; Home Depot soars

U.S. stocks closed lower after uneven trading Tuesday as fears about the “fiscal cliff” and Greece tipped major indexes between gains and losses. A surge in Home Depot's stock prevented a steeper drop for the Dow Jones industrial average.

The Dow closed down closed down 58.90 points, or 0.5 percent, at 12,756.18. It would have been lower without support from Home Depot, whose stock jumped 3.6 percent after the big-box retailer beat expectations for its fiscal third-quarter earnings. Home Depot is benefiting from the gradual housing recovery and rebuilding efforts after Superstorm Sandy. Home Depot rose $2.22 to $63.38.

Stocks had opened lower after European leaders postponed the latest aid package for Greece. The Dow turned positive in the first hour of trading and rose solidly through the morning, gaining as much as 83 points. Starting around 2 p.m., the average slid steadily into the red.

Other indexes also closed lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 5.50 points, or 0.4 percent, to 1,374.53. The Nasdaq composite index fell 20.37 points, or 0.7 percent, to 2,883.89.

Investors are trading against the backdrop of the “fiscal cliff,” a set of U.S. government spending cuts and tax increases that will take effect automatically at the beginning of next year unless U.S. leaders reach a compromise before then.

Worries about the fiscal cliff pushed U.S. stocks to one of their worst weekly losses of the year last week after voters re-elected President Barack Obama and a deeply divided Congress. Obama met Tuesday with labor leaders and others who advocate higher taxes on the wealthy and want to protect health benefits for seniors and other government programs. Obama will meet with business leaders Wednesday.

“The longer we sit and do nothing” about the nation's fiscal issues, “the more this market is going to oscillate between positive 40 and negative 60, until we know what's going to happen next with all this uncertainty,” said Craig Johnson, senior technical research strategist with Piper Jaffray & Co. in Minneapolis.

Johnson expects the S&P 500 will reach 1,550 in the next six months as investors get over their lingering wooziness from the Great Recession and companies understand better how government policy on taxes, health care and spending will affect them.

European stocks had been lower but rose after trading opened in New York. Benchmark indexes in France, Britain and Germany closed modestly higher.

Traders in Europe are concerned because finance ministers postponed $40 billion in desperately needed aid for Greece. The news surprised investors. A day earlier, there was word that leaders had prepared a “positive” report on Greece, making it appear likely that the aid would be released.

“It's a little bit like Groundhog Day,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group, referring to the classic Bill Murray movie whose protagonist must relive the same day over and over. Until there is decisive news from Washington or Brussels, neither of which appears imminent, markets will remain vulnerable to short-term swings caused by headlines, Colas said.

The next major catalysts for a market move, Colas said, will be gauges of spending by consumers on Black Friday, the traditional shopping rush on the day after Thanksgiving.

Greece's neighbors decided to give the country two more years to meet its economic targets. They still disagree with the International Monetary Fund, another key lender, over how to manage the country's debt over the long term. Until lenders reach an accord, they can't release the billions that Greece needs to make upcoming payments.

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said Greece should reduce its debt burden down to 120 percent of its economic output by 2020, the original target of 2020. But Jean-Claude Juncker, leader of the euro zone's finance ministers, said that the deadline would likely be changed to 2022. The lenders will meet again on Nov. 20.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid to 1.59 percent from 1.64 percent late Friday as demand increased for ultra-safe investments. The U.S. bond market was closed on Monday in observance of the Veterans Day holiday.

Among stocks making big moves:

Microsoft plunged 3 percent after it announced the departure of Steven Sinofsky, who ran its Windows division. The unexpected move comes just weeks after Microsoft launched Windows 8, its first major overhaul in years of the operating system used on most of the world's computers. Microsoft fell 90 cents to $27.09.

Weatherford International dropped 15.9 percent after the oilfield services company reported revenue that was lower than analysts had been expecting. The company did not report full results because of accounting problems that have led it to revise its results from numerous periods. The stock fell $1.73 to $9.15.

Apparel chain operator TJX Cos., the parent of TJ Maxx and Marshalls, rose 2.7 percent after raising its full-year earnings forecast and reporting third-quarter revenue that exceeded analysts' expectations. The stock added $1.09 to $42.06.

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Newton: Jan Perry's path to power

An essential element of a successful political campaign, whether for U.S. president or mayor of Los Angeles, is that it identifies a path to victory. Candidates have to differentiate themselves from competitors and appeal to constituencies sympathetic to their message.

At this point in the Los Angeles mayor's race, Councilwoman Jan Perry lags behind front-runners Wendy Greuel and Eric Garcetti in terms of money and name recognition, but in recent weeks she has found a potentially viable path.

Perry's approach reflects an important feature of the field for this campaign: Controller Greuel and Councilman Garcetti, the leading candidates at this early stage, bring to the campaign virtually identical politics and similar temperaments. Both are personable, smart liberals with strong ties to organized labor. Greuel draws support from the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, the union that represents employees of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, while Garcetti is close to the Service Employees International Union, which represents some city and county workers and others in service industries.

Those relationships are likely to supply Garcetti and Greuel with volunteers and financial support, both vital to winning. But they also present Perry with an opportunity to set herself apart. Now that County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky and businessmen Austin Beutner and Rick Caruso have opted out of the campaign, Perry finds herself with a surprisingly open shot at becoming the favored candidate of business. As one longtime observer of this region's politics remarked to me last week, "It's the only way for her to go."

Last week, Perry demonstrated that she's gotten that message. Speaking to a small but welcoming audience at the Japanese American National Museum, Perry staked out her territory. She said she would oppose increases in sales and documentary transfer taxes — proposals that may appear on the same ballot as the mayoral contest's first round in March. She argued for offloading some city assets, such as the Convention Center and zoo. And she insisted that the city's budget problems — it faces a shortfall of more than $200 million this year, and the prognosis gets worse looking ahead — need to be addressed by asking city employees to contribute more to their medical coverage and pensions. That's just what business wants to hear.

"I am a lifelong Democrat who is a business-friendly Democrat," she said. By contrast, she said, her chief opponents will find it difficult to challenge City Hall's status quo in areas such as rate increases and pension reform. "I think they both will have obligations that they will have to meet, one to IBEW, the other to SEIU."

There is a fourth candidate who could plant his flag in this same area. Lawyer and radio personality Kevin James is campaigning at the race's only true outsider. The same calculations that have raised Perry's possibilities have increased his as well, but she has experience and credentials that will make it hard for him to head her off.

Perry is likable, with a refreshing candor. Last week, she slipped off her shoes as she delivered her speech and took questions from reporters until they had no more. And she didn't exaggerate what is achievable: Asked whether she thought the city could rebound over the next four years, she said, basically, no.

But she has liabilities too. In 2007, she joined council colleagues — including Greuel and Garcetti — in voting for a salary increase that gave city workers more than 25% over five years. The deal was rendered insupportable when the economy tanked the next year, but it doesn't take a Nobel laureate to see that not many workers in 2007 were getting deals that promised them annual salary increases of 5%. When I asked her if she regretted that vote, Perry laughed. "Yes," she said. "Of course."

Perry does have her share of enemies. She is famously stubborn — one joke kicking around the campaign is that she might have dropped out of this race and instead run for controller if only so many people hadn't asked her to. And the demographic dynamics of her base are complicated. She's African American and enjoys strong support from that important but relatively small community. She's also, unbeknownst to many voters, Jewish, which supplies her either with a way to extend her base or to confuse it.

The business elites that supported Richard Riordan in the 1990s had hoped Beutner would run, and they have yet to fall in behind Perry. But they're without a standard-bearer at the moment, and that could leave Perry with a powerful constituency, a coherent message — and a path.

Jim Newton’s column appears Mondays. His latest book is "Eisenhower: The White House Years." Reach him at jim.newton@latimes.com or follow him on Twitter: @newton_jim.

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